Have Houthi and Ukrainian Attacks Increased Recession Risk?

Yes, but primarily through energy markets rather than agriculture.

Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping routes pose the greater economic risk because they can raise oil prices, increase transportation costs, and disrupt global trade. Sustained energy price shocks tend to slow economic growth and increase recession risk.

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure add volatility to energy markets but have generally had a smaller global impact. Their effect is most significant when combined with other supply disruptions.

Agricultural disruptions remain a concern, but global grain markets have become more adaptable than they were earlier in the war. As a result, food-related risks are generally less threatening to global growth than energy-related shocks.

Overall, recession risk has risen modestly, with the main concern being potential disruptions to global energy supplies and shipping networks.