The STC Takeover in Southern Yemen: History, Patrons, and Likely Outcomes

In December 2025, forces aligned with the Southern Transitional Council (STC) consolidated control over all eight southern governorates of Yemen. This marked a decisive shift in the country's long-running conflict, rooted in a distinct history of southern separatism.

Historical Timeline

Early 20th Century – 1990: The Road to Unification and Back

Southern Yemen was a British colony and protectorate (Aden).

It became the independent People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY) in 1967.

Unified with the north in 1990 to form the Republic of Yemen.

A southern secession attempt in 1994 was militarily crushed.

2015 – Present: Civil War and Southern Resurgence

The Houthi takeover of Sana'a sparked a civil war. A Saudi-led coalition, including the UAE, intervened. The recognized government relocated to Aden.

The UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) was formed in 2017.

The STC and the Saudi-backed government were uneasy allies, fighting repeated battles for control of the south (2018, 2019).

A Saudi-brokered power-sharing deal in 2022 placed the STC in a unified Presidential Leadership Council.

December 2025: The STC launched "Operation Promising Future," swiftly taking control of the entire south, including key oil fields, as Saudi forces withdrew from Aden.

Key Actors and Their Patrons

Southern Transitional Council (STC)

Primary Goal: Independence for southern Yemen or high autonomy.

Key Patron: United Arab Emirates (UAE). Provides financial, political, and military support, viewing the STC as a strategic partner to secure trade routes and counter Islamist influence.

Internationally Recognized Government (Presidential Leadership Council)

Primary Goal: Maintain a unified Yemen (now severely weakened).

Key Patron: Saudi Arabia. Has led the coalition against the Houthis for a decade. The STC's takeover is a major setback for Saudi influence and policy.

Ansar Allah (The Houthis)

Primary Goal: Control all of Yemen; currently governs the north and west.

Key Patron: Iran. Provides political and military support.

Likely Outcomes and Implications

1. De Facto Partition of Yemen

The most immediate outcome is the formal partition of Yemen into at least two entities: a Houthi-controlled north and an STC-controlled south. A unilateral declaration of independence is risky; the STC is more likely to push for an internationally recognized referendum on self-determination.

2. Escalation of UAE-Saudi Rivalry

The STC's victory, powered by the UAE, directly challenges Saudi Arabia's decade-long investment in Yemen's unity and exposes a major rift between the two Gulf allies. This competition will shape any future political process.

3. Risk of Renewed Regional War

The STC has hinted at launching ground operations against the Houthis. Any major offensive would shatter the fragile national truce, potentially plunging Yemen back into full-scale war and provoking Houthi attacks on international shipping or Gulf states.

4. Obstacle to Comprehensive Peace

By controlling southern oil resources (roughly 80% of Yemen's reserves), the STC holds veto power over any nationwide peace deal. A key STC goal appears to be preventing Saudi Arabia from offering oil revenue shares to the Houthis, thereby blocking a north-south settlement.

A critical question for the future is: How will the Houthis respond to this consolidation in the south? Will they seek a deal with the STC or prepare for a new front in the war?