Crisis in the Lake Chad Basin: A Consolidated View

The conflict in the Lake Chad Basin is a complex interplay of intense military challenges and profound humanitarian issues, each exacerbating the other. The situation is driven by non-state armed groups, environmental stress, and systemic governance failures.

Key Issues at a Glance

Humanitarian Crisis: Approximately 2.9 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs); 330,000 refugees; widespread malnutrition and the closure of over 1,800 schools.

Security Situation: Active insurgency by Boko Haram factions (JAS and ISWAP); sophisticated tactics including IEDs and drones; operational challenges for the regional Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF).p>

Root Causes: Ecological collapse (Lake Chad has shrunk ~90% since the 1960s), extreme poverty, and long-term state neglect.

Military and Security Landscape

Non-State Armed Groups

The primary instigators of violence are Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS, commonly known as Boko Haram) and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP). These groups have evolved from pure ideological movements to operating a brutal, extractive economy. They impose taxes on fishing, farming, and trade, controlling key markets and smuggling corridors. Their tactics have advanced to include the widespread use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), night vision gear, and armed drones.

Regional Military Response

The Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF), comprising troops from Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria, is the primary security mechanism. However, it faces critical capability gaps, including a lack of specialized counter-IED equipment, dedicated attack aircraft, and anti-drone technology. The force's cohesion is also threatened by political instability, notably Niger's withdrawal in March 2025, which has created a significant security vacuum.

Humanitarian and Human Cost

Displacement and Vulnerability

The violence has directly caused one of the world's most severe humanitarian disasters. There are an estimated 2.9 million people internally displaced across the region and 330,000 refugees. This displacement has disrupted education for an entire generation, with 1,827 schools closed due to violence, primarily in Chad. Furthermore, an estimated 220,000 children suffer from severe acute malnutrition.

Environmental and Governance Drivers

A key underlying driver is the ecological collapse of Lake Chad itself, which has shrunk dramatically since the 1960s due to climate change and water diversion. This has destroyed livelihoods for millions who depended on fishing, farming, and herding, intensifying competition for scarce resources. These problems are compounded by extreme poverty, corruption, and a lack of transparent governance, which erode public trust in the state.

Integrated Path Forward

A military-only approach is widely seen as insufficient. A sustainable solution requires integrating security, development, and governance efforts. The Regional Strategy for Stabilisation, Recovery, and Resilience (RS-SRR) is the main framework for this, aiming to address root causes by focusing on community reconstruction, providing livelihood opportunities, and reintegrating former combatants. Ultimately, breaking the cycle of violence requires rebuilding trust between the state and local communities through investment in climate-resilient agriculture and ensuring that economic development benefits local populations transparently.