Warfare and Insurgencies in the Sahel and Sudan: Actors and Interests

This analysis details the primary warring factions and the involvement of foreign state actors in the ongoing conflicts in Nigeria, Niger, Mali, and Sudan.

Country / Conflict	Primary Warring Factions	Foreign State Actors & Proxies	Primary Interests of Foreign Actors
Sudan (Civil War)	SAF (Sudanese Armed Forces); RSF (Rapid Support Forces)	SAF Backers: Egypt, Iran. RSF Backers: UAE (United Arab Emirates), Libyan networks.	Control over the Red Sea coast, gold deposits, and agricultural land; preventing a democratic transition; expanding regional influence.
Mali (Islamist Insurgency)	JNIM (al-Qaeda affiliate); ISSP (Islamic State Sahel Province)	Junta's Security Partner: Russia (Wagner Group). Former Partner: France (withdrawn).	Russia: Gaining a strategic foothold and access to resources. France: Former colonial power seeking to maintain regional stability.
Niger (Islamist Insurgency)	JNIM; ISSP (most active faction in Niger)	Information on specific *current* foreign partners of the junta is limited.	Securing the volatile tri-border area; maintaining regional stability.
Nigeria (Islamist Insurgency & Banditry)	Boko Haram; ISWAP (Islamic State West Africa Province); Criminal "bandit" groups	Potential External Partner: U.S., though relations are strained over accusations of religious persecution.	U.S. (potential): Curbing the insurgency and protecting religious freedom. The Nigerian government insists on respect for its sovereignty.

Regional Patterns in the Sahel

The conflicts in Mali, Niger, and Nigeria are interconnected components of a wider regional Islamist insurgency in the Sahel. The primary drivers are two major transnational jihadist groups:

The JNIM (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin), an al-Qaeda affiliate, employs a strategy that blends coercion with local governance. It is the most extensive and active militant coalition in the region.

The ISSP (Islamic State Sahel Province), an Islamic State affiliate, is known for its more brutal tactics and maximalist interpretation of Islamic law. It is particularly dominant in Niger.

A critical feature of this regional war is that these groups function primarily as insurgents, not just terrorists. Their strategic objective is to control territory and establish governance, which they pursue by providing services, operating courts, and levying taxes. This often fills a vacuum left by weak or absent central governments.

Summary of Conflict Dynamics

In Sudan, the conflict is a direct state-on-state civil war that has been internationalized by rival foreign powers backing different factions.

In the Sahel region (Mali, Niger, and Nigeria), the fight is against transnational jihadist insurgencies that seek to control and govern territory, exploiting local grievances and state weakness.

A common, tragic thread across all these conflicts is the profound vulnerability of civilians, who bear the brunt of the violence, whether from militant groups, state forces, or the geopolitical maneuvering of external actors.