Territorial Control in the Sudanese Civil War
An analysis of which factions control territory and the nature of their governance
The Sudanese civil war has fragmented the country among multiple warring factions. Each actor controls territory with varying degrees of authority, from formal state-like administration to predatory militia rule. Understanding these territorial divisions is key to analyzing the conflict's dynamics.
Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
The RSF has established control over vast, contiguous territories, particularly following their capture of El Fasher, which completed their domination of Darfur.
Nature of Control
Their rule is characterized as predatory and militia-based rather than formal state administration. They extract resources, loot property, and impose "taxes" on trade and movement. Control is enforced through garrisoned fighters and allied tribal militias, creating unstable conditions for civilians with widespread violence and ethnic cleansing.
Primary Zones of Control
Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
The SAF maintains control over key strategic areas, though their hold is fragmented and relies heavily on static defense positions.
Nature of Control
Their control resembles that of a conventional state military, holding cities and major infrastructure while using air power to project authority. However, they have largely lost the ability to operate freely or protect rural areas between their strongholds, revealing significant limitations in their territorial dominance.
Primary Zones of Control
Al-Baraa bin Malik Group (ISIS in Sudan)
This ISIS-affiliated group maintains a presence in specific areas but does not control major population centers or formal administrative units.
Nature of Control
Their authority is best described as insurgent control. They operate in rural areas, mountainous regions, and pockets of territory where they can move freely, set up checkpoints, and launch attacks. They may exert influence over remote communities through intimidation or by presenting themselves as an alternative to the RSF's brutality, but they do not "govern" in any formal sense.
Primary Zones of Control
SPLM-N (al-Hilu)
The Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (al-Hilu faction) controls a distinct, long-held territory with established governance structures.
Nature of Control
This group maintains the closest approximation to de facto state-like control in Sudan. They operate a parallel civil administration, provide basic services, collect taxes, and maintain a disciplined army. Their territory functions as a largely autonomous safe haven that has maintained stability despite the broader conflict.
Primary Zones of Control
| Actor | Controls Territory? | Nature of Control | Key Regions Held |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapid Support Forces (RSF) | Yes, extensively | Predatory, militia-based, unstable | Entire Darfur region, parts of Khartoum & Kordofan |
| Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) | Yes, strategically | Conventional state military (static defense) | Nile River corridor, Port Sudan, the East, the North |
| Al-Baraa bin Malik (ISIS) | Yes, limited | Insurgent control, influence in pockets | Rural and mountainous areas of Darfur/Kordofan |
| SPLM-N (al-Hilu) | Yes, definitively | De facto state-like administration | Nuba Mountains (South Kordofan) |
Conclusion
Sudan is now a shattered state, effectively partitioned among multiple warring factions. The RSF controls the west, the SAF controls the east and north, and various other groups control enclaves. There is no single authority governing the entire country, and the lines of control are fluid, especially in central regions where fighting is most intense.
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