Summary of Discussions: International Warrants & Madagascar Political Crisis

Part 1: International Criminal Court Arrest Warrants

Critical Update: The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber has officially issued arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders as of November 21, 2024.

Current Status of Key ICC Arrest Warrants

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia: An ICC arrest warrant was issued in March 2023 for the war crime of unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine to Russia.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister, and Yoav Gallant, Israeli Defense Minister: The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber issued arrest warrants on November 21, 2024, following the Prosecutor's application from May 2024. The charges include starvation of civilians as a method of warfare, willful killing, and intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population.

Hamas Leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh: The ICC Pre-Trial Chamber issued arrest warrants on November 21, 2024. The charges include extermination, murder, taking hostages, rape, and other acts of sexual violence.

Enforcement and Legal Reality

The International Criminal Court has no independent police force and relies entirely on its 124 member states to execute arrests. This creates a significant enforcement gap, particularly for leaders of non-member states like Russia, Israel, and Hamas, which is not a state. The warrants serve as powerful legal and symbolic tools that restrict travel and create a permanent record of alleged crimes, even if immediate arrest is unlikely.

Part 2: Political Crisis in Madagascar

Role of the CAPSAT Military Unit

The Corps of Administrative, Technical, and Financial Personnel (CAPSAT) is a key military faction in Madagascar that has acted as a political kingmaker. In 2009, CAPSAT played a crucial role in a military-backed coup that removed President Marc Ravalomanana and installed Andry Rajoelina as the head of a transitional government.

2025 Political Volatility

The political situation escalated when CAPSAT reversed its long-standing support and aligned with youth-led "Gen Z" protests against President Rajoelina's government in October 2025. The unit declared that all military orders would now come from its headquarters, and its commanders demanded Rajoelina step down, forcing the president to flee the country.

Ideological Alignment Analysis

The actions of CAPSAT are not driven by Islamist or Marxist ideologies. Madagascar is a predominantly Christian nation with no significant history of Marxist political movements. CAPSAT's behavior is consistent with a pattern of pragmatic political kingmaking, where its allegiance is to its own power and influence rather than to an overarching ideological doctrine. Their alignment with protesters is based on secular, political grievances and a calculation of national stability.

Overall Conclusions

First, the landscape of international justice is active, with the ICC now having officially issued warrants for top leaders from Russia, Israel, and Hamas. However, the enforcement of these warrants remains a profound challenge, dependent on the political will of member states.

Second, the political crisis in Madagascar is a clear example of a secular, internal power struggle. The CAPSAT military unit's shift in allegiance is a tactical move rooted in domestic politics and patronage networks, not in international ideologies like Marxism or Islamism.