Has Africa Been Less Safe This Decade?

That's an excellent and complex question. The answer isn't a simple "yes" or "no," as safety in a continent of 54 diverse countries varies dramatically.

Overall, the data and expert analysis suggest that the decade has seen a mixed picture, but with a clear and concerning trend towards increased conflict and political violence in several key regions, while other areas have remained stable or improved.

Trends Pointing Towards a Less Safe Africa (2020s)

Rise in Coups and Political Instability

There has been a significant resurgence of military coups, particularly in West Africa and the Sahel (e.g., Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea, Chad, Gabon). This creates power vacuums, undermines state authority, and often leads to increased violence.

Expansion of Jihadist Insurgencies

Islamist militant groups, notably those affiliated with ISIS and Al-Qaeda, have dramatically expanded their reach. The epicenter remains the Sahel (affecting Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger most severely), but violence has spilled over into coastal West African nations like Togo, Benin, and Ghana. In Mozambique, an ISIS-linked insurgency in Cabo Delgado province has caused a major humanitarian crisis.

Intensification of Civil Conflicts

Ethiopia: The Tigray War (2020-2022) was one of the deadliest conflicts in the world during its peak.

Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Conflict in the east has intensified, with the M23 rebel group resurgent and causing mass displacement.

Sudan: The civil war that began in April 2023 between the national army and the Rapid Support Forces has created one of the world's worst humanitarian disasters and a catastrophic security situation.

Sahel Region: The conflict in the Sahel has become more entrenched and deadly for civilians, with state forces and militant groups accused of widespread human rights abuses.

Growing Regional Tensions

The coup in Niger and the subsequent decision by Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to exit ECOWAS (the Economic Community of West African States) signals a fracturing of regional governance and security frameworks, which could lead to further instability.

Impact of Climate Change

While not a direct cause of conflict, climate change acts as a "threat multiplier." Droughts, desertification, and competition for scarce resources (like water and grazing land) exacerbate existing tensions between farmers and herders, particularly in regions like the Central Sahel and parts of Nigeria.

Important Nuances and Counter-Trends (Areas of Stability or Improvement)

Africa is Not a Monolith

It is crucial to avoid generalizations. While the Sahel, Central Africa, and the Horn of Africa face severe challenges, many other regions are relatively stable and safe.

Southern Africa (e.g., Botswana, Namibia, Zambia, South Africa for non-political crime) has not seen large-scale conflict.

Rwanda and Tanzania in East Africa have remained largely stable in terms of internal conflict.

Ghana, Senegal, and Côte d'Ivoire in West Africa have maintained democratic stability despite being in a turbulent neighborhood.

Decline in Some Long-Standing Conflicts

Some conflicts have de-escalated. The civil war in Ethiopia's Tigray region has ended with a fragile peace agreement. The conflict in Northern Mozambique has been contained somewhat by regional military intervention.

Focus on "Everyday Safety"

For many Africans, the primary safety concern is not war or terrorism, but violent crime, such as armed robbery, carjackings, and kidnappings for ransom. This type of crime remains a serious issue in many urban and rural areas across the continent, a problem that has persisted for decades.

Data and Reports

The Global Peace Index (GPI) 2023 report found that, on average, the world became less peaceful, with Sub-Saharan Africa recording the largest deterioration in peacefulness. Key drivers were the ongoing conflicts in the DRC and Ethiopia, and the spread of terrorism in the Sahel.

The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) consistently records high levels of political violence and conflict events across the Sahel, the DRC, Somalia, and Sudan.

Conclusion

Yes, on a continental level, Africa has been less safe this decade compared to the previous one. The 2020s have been marked by a distressing surge in coups, the geographic spread of jihadist violence, and the eruption or intensification of major civil wars in key countries.

However, this statement comes with critical caveats:

The insecurity is highly concentrated in specific regions (the Sahel, Central Africa, the Horn).

Many African nations continue to be islands of stability and safety.

The nature of the threat varies greatly, from full-scale civil war to terrorism, political instability, and criminal violence.

Therefore, while the overall trend for the continent is negative, the safety of any individual country or region must be assessed on its own specific and evolving circumstances.