Analysis of Militant Groups in Somalia

Al-Shabaab: The Dominant Force

Affiliation: Al-Qaeda

Strength in Establishing an Islamic Government:

Territorial Control: Al-Shabaab controls vast swathes of rural southern and central Somalia. In these areas, they administer justice through their courts, collect taxes, run their own "ministries," and provide a degree of security and order.

Revenue Generation: They run a sophisticated financial system, collecting taxes from businesses and agricultural production, imposing "port taxes" on goods, and receiving funds from abroad.

Administrative Structure: Al-Shabaab has a clear, hierarchical structure with a central leadership, regional governors, military commanders, and a religious judiciary that allows them to implement and enforce their strict interpretation of Sharia law.

Longevity and Resilience: Founded around 2006, Al-Shabaab has survived over a decade and a half of U.S. airstrikes, African Union military offensives, and internal strife, demonstrating deep-rooted presence and adaptability.

Islamic State in Somalia (ISS): The Weaker Challenger

Affiliation: Islamic State (ISIS)

Strength in Establishing an Islamic Government:

Limited Territorial Control: The ISS's presence is largely confined to a few sparsely populated areas in the mountainous Puntland region. They do not control significant population centers.

Smaller and Weaker: The group is estimated to have a few hundred fighters compared to Al-Shabaab's several thousand, and has been targeted by both Al-Shabaab and Somali security forces.

Focus on Insurgency, Not Governance: The ISS's activities are primarily insurgent in nature—conducting sporadic attacks, bombings, and assassinations with little evidence of comprehensive governance systems.

Internal Conflict: The group has suffered from significant internal leadership disputes and purges, further weakening its coherence and operational capacity.

Feature	Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda Affiliate)	Islamic State in Somalia (ISS)
Primary Goal	Establish an Islamic Emirate in Somalia first	Part of a global caliphate; priorities often set by central IS leadership
Territorial Control	Extensive in rural southern/central Somalia; governs populations	Very limited, mostly remote areas of Puntland
Governance Capacity	High - runs courts, tax systems, and provides services	Very Low - focus is on survival and attacks, not administration
Military & Financial Strength	Very strong, diverse revenue streams	Weak, reliant on limited local resources and external funding
Longevity & Resilience	High - persistent force since ~2006	Low - formed in 2015 and has remained a marginal player

Conclusion

While both groups aspire to establish an Islamic government, Al-Shabaab is overwhelmingly stronger and more successful in achieving this goal on the ground in Somalia. It functions as a mature insurgent group with strong proto-state characteristics. The Islamic State's branch remains a small, marginalized faction with limited influence and no real capacity to govern. The primary conflict over the future of an Islamic government in Somalia is between the Somali government (with international support) and the Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabaab.