U.S. Business Cycles Since 1900
The duration of U.S. business cycles (expansions) before a recession or depression varies significantly. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official arbiter of U.S. business cycle dates. The table below summarizes the business cycles since 1900, based on NBER data.
Business Cycle Chronology
| Peak (Start of Recession) | Trough (End of Recession) | Expansion Duration (Previous Trough to Peak) |
Contraction Duration (Peak to Trough) |
|---|---|---|---|
| September 1902 | August 1904 | 21 months (from June 1901) | 23 months |
| May 1907 | June 1908 | 33 months (from August 1904) | 13 months |
| January 1910 | January 1912 | 19 months (from June 1908) | 24 months |
| January 1913 | December 1914 | 12 months (from January 1912) | 23 months |
| August 1918 | March 1919 | 44 months (from December 1914) | 7 months |
| January 1920 | July 1921 | 10 months (from March 1919) | 18 months |
| May 1923 | July 1924 | 22 months (from July 1921) | 14 months |
| October 1926 | November 1927 | 27 months (from July 1924) | 13 months |
| August 1929 | March 1933 | 21 months (from November 1927) | 43 months (Great Depression) |
| May 1937 | June 1938 | 50 months (from March 1933) | 13 months |
| February 1945 | October 1945 | 80 months (from June 1938) | 8 months |
| November 1948 | October 1949 | 37 months (from October 1945) | 11 months |
| July 1953 | May 1954 | 45 months (from October 1949) | 10 months |
| August 1957 | April 1958 | 39 months (from May 1954) | 8 months |
| April 1960 | February 1961 | 24 months (from April 1958) | 10 months |
| December 1969 | November 1970 | 106 months (from February 1961) | 11 months |
| November 1973 | March 1975 | 36 months (from November 1970) | 16 months |
| January 1980 | July 1980 | 58 months (from March 1975) | 6 months |
| July 1981 | November 1982 | 12 months (from July 1980) | 16 months |
| July 1990 | March 1991 | 92 months (from November 1982) | 8 months |
| March 2001 | November 2001 | 120 months (from March 1991) | 8 months |
| December 2007 | June 2009 | 73 months (from November 2001) | 18 months |
| February 2020 | April 2020 | 128 months (from June 2009) | 2 months |
Key Observations
Longest Expansions:
- 2010s Expansion: 128 months (June 2009 to February 2020), the longest in U.S. history.
- 1990s Expansion: 120 months (March 1991 to March 2001).
- 1980s Expansion: 92 months (November 1982 to July 1990).
Shortest Expansions:
- 1919–1920 Expansion: 10 months (March 1919 to January 1920).
- 1980–1981 Expansion: 12 months (July 1980 to July 1981).
Longest Contractions (Recessions/Depressions):
- Great Depression: 43 months (August 1929 to March 1933).
- 2007–2009 Great Recession: 18 months (December 2007 to June 2009).
Shortest Contraction:
- COVID-19 Recession: 2 months (February 2020 to April 2020).
Average Duration (Post-WWII):
- Expansions: Have become significantly longer.
- Contractions: Average around 10.3 months, becoming shorter and less severe.
Historical Context & Trends
- Pre-WWII Cycles: Characterized by higher volatility, with shorter expansions and longer, more severe contractions.
- Post-WWII Cycles: Feature longer expansions and shorter recessions, attributed to better economic policies, stabilization measures (like automatic stabilizers), and different economic structures.
- Recent Trends: Expansions have become notably longer over time, while recessions have become shorter (though they can be sharp, like the COVID-19 recession).
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