The Rohingya Crisis: Myanmar and Bangladesh

The Rohingya crisis between Myanmar and Bangladesh remains one of the world's most severe humanitarian emergencies. The situation is increasingly dire, marked by a continuous influx of refugees into Bangladesh, critically underfunded aid operations, and no viable solution for safe repatriation in sight.

Crisis Overview

Aspect of the Crisis	Current Status (2025)
Refugees in Bangladesh	Approximately 1.3 million Rohingya are sheltered, over 1 million in Cox's Bazar camps.
Recent New Arrivals	About 150,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh in the past 18 months due to renewed conflict in Rakhine State.
Humanitarian Funding	Severely underfunded. The 2024 UN appeal was only 35% funded; the 2025 response plan is less than 22% funded.
Food Rations	Risk of being cut to $6 per person, down from an already insufficient amount, deepening hunger and malnutrition.
Primary Challenges	Extreme overcrowding, reliance on aid, climate vulnerabilities (monsoons, fires), and no prospect of returning home.

A Crisis Exacerbated by Conflict and Funding Cuts

The situation is deteriorating due to two main factors: ongoing violence in Myanmar and a dramatic shortfall in international aid.

Renewed Conflict in Myanmar

The struggle for control of Rakhine State between the Myanmar junta and the Arakan Army (AA) has escalated, leading to targeted violence, massacres, and forced conscription of Rohingya civilians. This has triggered the largest wave of refugees into Bangladesh since 2017. Furthermore, the Arakan Army's ban on the term "Rohingya" reinforces the systemic denial of their identity and rights, making safe return impossible.

Collapsing Aid System

International support for the crisis is waning. The World Food Programme (WFP) has been forced to reduce food vouchers due to "severe funding shortfalls". UN agencies warn that without immediate financial support, health services will be severely disrupted, food assistance will stop, and education for hundreds of thousands of children will be discontinued, leading to a "catastrophic situation".

Regional Implications and Future Outlook

The crisis has profound implications that extend beyond the borders of Bangladesh and Myanmar.

Strain on Bangladesh

Bangladesh, described as the "second victim" of the crisis, faces enormous socioeconomic, environmental, and security pressures. The influx has increased competition for resources and labor, raising tensions with host communities.

Regional Instability

The crisis risks fueling wider regional instability. There are reports of Rohingya armed groups in the camps recruiting members to fight the Arakan Army, which could lead to further bloodshed and destroy any prospects for repatriation. Neighboring countries like Malaysia and India also host significant Rohingya populations, leading to strained relations and human rights challenges.