Thursday, September 4, 2025

Justice for Prabhupada Case Analysis

Justice for Prabhupada Case Analysis

Prisoner's Dilemma "Chicken" Framework

Case Background

"Justice for Prabhupada" has filed a criminal complaint with the Indian Supreme Court against ISKCON, based on forensic evidence suggesting arsenic and cadmium poisoning. ISKCON disputes the claims, questioning the chain of custody of hair samples and the scientific knowledge of Prabhupada's inner circle in 1977.

Key Elements:

  • 800+ pages of evidence from the now-dismantled Child Protection Organization
  • Forensic analysis by University of Missouri scientists indicating arsenic and cadmium
  • ISKCON's challenge to the chain of custody of evidence
  • Bhakti Caru Swami's chemistry degree as a point of contention

The "Chicken" Prisoner's Dilemma Framework

Player 1: Justice for Prabhupada (JFP)

Goal: Expose alleged truth, achieve legal recognition of wrongdoing, clear Prabhupada's name

Player 2: ISKCON GBC

Goal: Protect the institution, its reputation, mission, and assets

Strategic Options

Cooperate (Swerve)

JFP: Withdraw complaint or settle for internal resolution

ISKCON: Engage with allegations, open archives, agree to independent investigation

Defect (Don't Swerve)

JFP: Push criminal complaint to fullest extent in Supreme Court

ISKCON: Full aggressive legal and PR defense, challenge evidence credibility

Payoff Matrix

Strategies
ISKCON Cooperates
ISKCON Defects
JFP Cooperates

Stalemate / Quiet Peace (0, 0)

The issue is buried. JFP feels truth is suppressed. ISKCON avoids scandal but lives with lingering whispers.

ISKCON Wins (-5, +5)

JFP is discredited as conspiracy theorists. The movement dies. ISKCON's authority is reinforced.

JFP Defects

JFP Wins (+5, -5)

The court takes the case. ISKCON is forced into damaging discovery process, PR disaster, potential criminal charges.

Mutual Destruction (-10, -10)

A brutal, public legal war. ISKCON's public image is shattered. Devotees' faith is broken. JFP is associated with destroying the institution.

JFP's Strategic Position

Goal: Force ISKCON to "Swerve"

JFP's best outcome is when they defect and ISKCON cooperates. Their argument: "We have evidence. If you truly care about the institution, you will not risk total annihilation by fighting us."

Signaling Resolve

The 800-page complaint and external forensic labs signal commitment. They're saying: "We are all-in. We are not going to back down."

Undermining ISKCON's Defense

Mentioning Bhakti Caru Swami's chemistry degree attacks ISKCON's "knowledge was unknown" defense, making their defection strategy riskier.

ISKCON's Strategic Position

Goal: Force JFP to "Swerve"

ISKCON's best outcome is when JFP defects and they cooperate. Their argument: "Your evidence is flawed. If you proceed, you will destroy Prabhupada's mission."

Signaling Resolve

ISKCON must project institutional strength - deploying lawyers, PR experts, and respected swamis to dismiss allegations. They're saying: "We are not intimidated."

Raising Stakes of Mutual Destruction

ISKCON will frame JFP as reckless radicals willing to destroy everything. They hope the broader community will pressure JFP to back down.

Potential Outcomes & Equilibrium

In this high-stakes game of chicken, the outcome depends on who successfully signals the strongest commitment to their position. The Indian Supreme Court may serve as the external actor that ultimately decides which party must "swerve."

Most Likely Scenario:

A prolonged standoff heading toward mutual destruction until the Supreme Court decides whether to admit the case, effectively determining which party must yield.

Analysis of the Justice for Prabhupada case through game theory framework

Prisoner's Dilemma "Chicken" Variant | HTML Implementation

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