ISIS Status and Capabilities in the Middle East

Based on current assessments from mid-to-late 2025, the Islamic State (ISIS) no longer controls territory but remains a persistent and adaptive security threat across Syria and Iraq. The group has shifted to a decentralized insurgency, exploiting regional instability to carry out frequent attacks.

Current ISIS Strength and Capabilities

Aspect	Current Status (2025)	Key Details
Estimated Strength in Syria & Iraq	1,500 - 3,000 fighters	Down from a peak of ~80,000; operates in clandestine cells.
Operational Nature	Decentralized Insurgency	Relies on guerrilla tactics: IEDs, ambushes, assassinations, and small-scale attacks.
Primary Safe Havens	Syrian Desert (Badiya Al-Sham) and remote areas of Northeastern Syria	Uses vast, poorly governed spaces to regroup, train, and plan attacks.
Recent Attack Trends	Significant increase in 2024 (approx. 700 attacks in Syria)	Demonstrates resilience and ability to exploit political transitions and security vacuums.

Regional Security Assessment

The group's capabilities are directly influenced by the complex and volatile security situation in the region.

Exploiting Instability in Syria

The fall of the Assad regime in late 2024 has created a power vacuum and fueled sectarian violence, which ISIS has actively sought to exploit. The new transitional government struggles to exert authority nationwide, providing ISIS with opportunities to regroup. The group has targeted checkpoints, government vehicles, and minorities to undermine the new administration's credibility.

Persistent Threat in Iraq

While the U.S.-led Global Coalition officially ended its combat mission in Iraq in 2025, transitioning to a bilateral security relationship, ISIS remains a latent threat. The group's ability to operate in Iraq is often linked to the broader security dynamics between the central government, Kurdish authorities, and various militias.

The "Ticking Time Bomb" of Detention Camps

A critical long-term threat comes from the thousands of individuals detained in Syria. Over 8,500 suspected ISIS militants are held in SDF-run prisons, with an additional 38,400 family members in camps like Al-Hol. These facilities are vulnerable to attacks aimed at freeing experienced fighters, which would dramatically boost ISIS's operational capabilities.

Looking Ahead: The Challenge of a Sustained Response

The future containment of ISIS is challenged by two major factors: a waning international focus and the group's proven adaptability. Counter-terrorism experts note that as global attention shifts to other geopolitical issues, the resources and political will needed to support local partners may diminish. Meanwhile, ISIS has transitioned to a hybrid model, balancing regional autonomy for its affiliates with centralized ideological guidance, making it a resilient and diffuse threat.