Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant Risk Assessment

⚠️ Critical Risk Factors

1. Systemic Failures (e.g., Power Loss)

• Plant relies on a single operational off-site power line (down from 10 pre-war)

• 9 power losses since 2022, forcing reliance on emergency diesel generators

• IAEA rates situation as "extremely fragile" with exponential risk increase

2. Accidental Military Damage

• Routine military activity within 1.2 km of site (drones, artillery)

• Critical systems at risk: cooling, radiation sensors, spent fuel storage

• Spent fuel pools require continuous cooling despite cold shutdown reactors

3. Deliberate Sabotage

• Mutual accusations between Russia/Ukraine of targeting facility

• Containment robust but vulnerable to sustained heavy artillery

• Potential for localized contamination from targeted strikes

4. Human Factor Risks

• Ukrainian staff operate under coercion and torture

• Russian personnel lack qualifications for plant management

• Documented "stress-induced errors" in operations

☢️ Potential Consequences

• Regional contamination: Radiation spread across Ukraine and neighboring countries

• Emergency preparedness: Iodine tablets distributed to 400,000 residents

• Global implications: Potential impact on food/water systems, possible INES 5-6 event

📊 Cumulative Risk Assessment

Scenario	Probability	Severity	Key Vulnerabilities
Systemic failure	High	High	Power grid fragility, cooling dependency
Accidental military damage	Moderate-High	Moderate-High	Proximity of fighting, spent fuel pools
Deliberate sabotage	Low-Moderate	Critical	Containment integrity, political motivations
Human error	Moderate	High	Staffing crisis, operational pressure

💎 Conclusion

Overall accident risk is escalating due to:

• Prolonged warfare near critical infrastructure

• Degraded safety systems and staffing crisis

• Insufficient diplomatic progress

IAEA Director General warning: "We are getting dangerously close to a nuclear accident"